Rotorua Hospital. Photo / NZME
An estimated 100 people will die and there will be 14,000 Covid-19 cases in the Lakes DHB area next year if an 80 per cent vaccination rate is achieved.
But the number of deaths would nearly halve and case numbers would drop to just under 10,000 if Lakes hits its 90 per cent target, new pandemic modelling figures show.
The Toi Te Ora Public Health data, released to the Rotorua Daily Post Weekend, shows cases, deaths, hospitalisation and emergency department presentation rates for 2022 - with both an 80 per cent and 90 per cent vaccinated population. The Lakes DHB area covers Rotorua and Taupō.
This comes as a record 163 new Covid-19 cases were announced yesterday: 159 in Auckland and four in Waikato. The previous record, 162, was set on Monday.
On Friday, there were 69 people in hospital, six in ICU or high-dependency units.
All but one of the hospitalised cases were in Auckland, with the other in Waikato.
The modelling figures show that with an 80 per cent vaccinated population in the Lakes DHB area there would be 270 cases, 19 hospitalisations, and two deaths per week.
But at 90 per cent, cases are expected to drop to 190 a week, with 12 hospitalisations and one death.
The most recent vaccination data shows 81 per cent of those aged over 12 in the region have had their first dose of the vaccine. Sixty-six per cent have received both.
Toi Te Ora Public Health medical officer of health Dr Jim Miller said achieving 90 per cent fully vaccinated for the Lakes community "significantly reduces the estimated number of hospitalisations, ED attendances and deaths".
"The most important factor in estimating the burden of Covid-19 infection that we may experience in the community next year is the vaccination coverage in the eligible Lakes population."
He said the figures would likely have "peak periods" where demand on health services would be "significant" rather than being spread evenly over the year.
It is likely there would be "significantly more" Covid-19 in the community with an 80 per cent fully vaccinated rate compared to having 90 per cent coverage.
"Covid-19 can be a very serious illness and it is quite clear that it is largely a disease of the unvaccinated," he said.
He hoped the Lakes community would reach the 90 per cent target in December.
"I urge those that have not yet been vaccinated to do so, it's free, and it helps to protect the your health, your whānau and your community."
The modelling also shows that at 80 per cent there would be 2800 emergency department attendances next year but this would drop to 1600 at 90 per cent.
Lakes District Health Board chief operating officer Alan Wilson said plans were in place to separate the Emergency Department into Covid and non-Covid zones. This would also be done in the intensive care unit (ICU) and the medical unit.
Asked if Rotorua Hospital would be able to cope based on this data, he said there were six ICU beds. If more were needed, six beds in coronary care could be made available.
"Whether we have sufficient capacity will depend on how many people within our community remain unvaccinated."
He said the problem for DHBs would not only be number of ICU bed and ventilators, but the high number of staff needed to care for patients on ventilation.
Unvaccinated people needed to "step up and get vaccinated".
"So we can meet the target, keep the hospital open for all other patients and elective surgery, and so we can get the district opened up for tourists.
"It's so easy and convenient now."
Te Arawa Covid Hub project lead Karen Vercoe said it was the first time they had seen the data, so needed more time to respond.
But she said ultimately, the "situation is serious" and while Rotorua had not yet had its first Covid-19 case "it is only a matter of time".
"Community Covid infection will have significant repercussions for our community and our local health system," Vercoe said.
The organisation's vaccination goal was higher than 90 per cent, with an escalating focus on boosting jab rates and preparing ahead of community spread.
"We know we will need at least 95 per cent of our whānau vaccinated in order to keep our community safe."
Vercoe reiterated vaccination, following hygiene precautions and making a plan for if someone in your house tests positive for Covid were all important factors in preparing.
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University of Canterbury modeller Professor Michael Plank said the actual numbers would depend on the Government response,how effective public health measures were at slowing the spread and vaccination distribution across communities.
He said the data "clearly shows" that getting from 80 per cent to 90 per cent provides a big reduction in hospitalisations and deaths.
But he reiterated that also showed hospitalisations and death were still likely at 90 per cent, which reiterated the importance of getting the vaccination rate above that target.
Rotorua Mayor Steve Chadwick said "every possible method at our disposal" needed to be used to increase vaccination rates in the region.
"If we want everything to open up again soon – which we need for the benefit of our wellbeing as well as our economy – we just need to get those numbers higher."
She said people who had already been vaccinated could play an "important role" in increasing numbers by encouraging, reassuring and supporting others.
The model assumes there would be some border controls in place although a number of cases would enter the country each day and public health measures including the management of cases and contacts. This would assist in reducing the number of cases and associated hospitalisations.
• A Spectacular Sunday drive-through clinic is being held by the Te Arawa Covid Hub this weekend to follow up on Super Saturday vaccinations. It will be held at 33 on Clayton Rd from 10am to 4pm with free hāngi available. Appointments are not necessary.
- Additional reporting, Megan Wilson
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